Nigeria’s massive Dangote refinery has emerged as a bulwark against the global energy crunch triggered by the Iran-Israel war, according to World Bank President Ajay Banga.
In a Friday interview with Reuters, Banga hailed the $20 billion, 650,000-barrels-a-day facility built by the Dangote Group as a model of foresight.
“Nigeria should be breathing a sigh of relief,” he said.
“They have built up the ability to have energy security for themselves through that huge investment. It’s actually a really good example of the right thing being done in terms of energy self-sufficiency for them, but also for their neighbours.”
The refinery has ramped up output amid the conflict, even exporting aviation fuel to nearby countries, at a time when the war has spiked oil prices 50% and snarled supplies of oil, gas, fertilizers, helium and more—hammering tourism and air travel while killing thousands.
A shaky two-week ceasefire, announced by President Donald Trump, hangs in the balance. Israel and Iran traded strikes Friday, and Iran insists on the release of blocked assets plus a Lebanon truce before Saturday’s U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, where Vice President JD Vance arrived that day.
President Trump warned U.S. warships are reloading ammunition if negotiations collapse.
Banga cautioned that even with a quick resolution, the war could shave 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points off global growth. A prolonged conflict might cut it by 1 point, while inflation could surge 200 to 300 basis points—or up to 0.9 point in a worst case.
The World Bank’s latest forecast pencils in 3.65% growth for emerging markets and developing economies in 2026, down from October’s 4% estimate, with inflation climbing to 4.9% from 3%. An extreme scenario: growth at 2.6%, inflation at 6.7%.
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“The question really is, does this current peace and the negotiations… lead to a lasting peace and then a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz?” Banga said.
Failure could inflict “even larger” damage on energy infrastructure.
The bank is activating crisis funds for vulnerable nations, including small islands lacking resources, via pre-approved programs that skip fresh board votes.
NewsQuest reports that Dangote refinery presently operates at 650,000 barrels per day, with plans to expand to 1.4 million bpd by 2028, covering Nigeria’s petrol requirements and supporting energy security.
