Nigeria under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu has made measurable gains in macroeconomic stability but poverty has surged to an estimated 63 percent of the population, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its 2026 Article IV consultation report released this week.
The IMF praised a string of market-oriented reforms undertaken since 2023—most notably the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalization of the foreign-exchange market and an end to deficit monetization—which it said have strengthened resilience and restored investor confidence.
At the same time the Fund warned that those gains have not translated into broad-based improvements in living standards, and that food insecurity and rising prices are worsening hardships for many Nigerians.
The report said about 27 million people experienced food insecurity in late 2025.
Inflation, which had been falling, edged higher to 15.4 percent year‑on‑year in March 2026 amid rising global fuel and food costs.
The consolidated government fiscal deficit widened to 4.4 percent of GDP in 2025 as oil revenues disappointed, the IMF added.
On external balances, Nigeria’s gross international reserves rose to $46 billion in 2025 from $40 billion at end‑2024, while net reserves climbed to $35 billion from $23 billion.
The parallel foreign‑exchange premium remained below 5%, and sovereign spreads were broadly stable despite adverse global conditions.
The Fund projects GDP growth of 4.0 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026.
Executive Director at the IMF commended the Nigerian Government for restoring macroeconomic stability and advancing financial‑sector reforms, including bank recapitalization and Nigeria’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list.
But they urged urgent action on social protection, fiscal transparency and poverty reduction, and recommended a neutral fiscal stance for 2026 alongside expanded cash transfers to vulnerable households.
“The reforms have started to deliver macro‑level benefits, but significant social challenges persist,” the IMF said, highlighting risks from volatile commodity markets and domestic security concerns that could exacerbate poverty and food insecurity.
The Fund urged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain tight monetary policy until inflation is clearly under control and to move toward an inflation‑targeting framework. It also called for closer monitoring of nonperforming loans and regulatory oversight of emerging financial technologies, including crypto assets.
The Federal Government has said it welcomed the assessment as independent validation of its policy course.
In a statement, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele pointed to nearly 10 percent per‑capita income growth in 2025, expanded cash‑transfer programmes, student loans through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, consumer‑credit initiatives and agriculture schemes under the Renewed Hope National Agricultural Mechanisation Programme.
“The Government is taking steps to strengthen fiscal data integrity, improve coordination among institutions, enhance transparency in budget execution and deepen public financial management reforms,” Oyedele said, responding to IMF recommendations.
