President Bola Tinubu could secure a second term in the January 2027 presidential election despite mounting public anger over insecurity and economic hardship, Britain’s Economist magazine has said.
The UK magazine argued that Nigeria’s fragmented opposition, incumbency advantages and persistently low voter turnout may yet work in his favour of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate.
In an article titled, “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,” the London-based publication said Tinubu’s prospects rested less on broad approval of his government than on what it called Nigeria’s complicated electoral dynamics.
The assessment came as the presidency again defended the administration’s economic programme, saying previous governments had deferred difficult decisions and allowed distortions in the economy to become entrenched.
Bayo Onanuga, the President’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, cited the president’s October 1 Independence Day address in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
President Tinubu had argued in the address that successive administrations had postponed necessary reforms, leaving his government to confront their consequences.
President Tinubu is expected to face former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor running under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), among the leading contenders in the 2027 race.
The Economist said President Tinubu appeared outwardly confident despite the political risks.
President Tinubu returned to Nigeria on September 29 after spending about a month in Europe, having extended what his office described as a working holiday.
“On the face of it, Mr. Tinubu’s cool is surprising,” the magazine wrote, citing an intensifying security crisis and the hardships facing households.
Nigeria is contending with recurring kidnappings and killings by bandits and insurgents, particularly across parts of the north, but the publication said President Tinubu’s market-oriented reforms had won praise from investors.
“His economic reforms, though lauded by investors, have yet to make life better for most of the country’s 240m people,” the magazine said.
The British magazine used Borno State, a longtime centre of the Boko Haram insurgency and related jihadist violence, to illustrate the economic and political pressures confronting the Tinubu administration.
Jihadist groups are fighting the State and each other while sustaining themselves through kidnapping, extortion and the looting of farmers, the publication said.
According to the magazine, the violence has weakened local commerce, disrupted farming and left many young people without work.
A 27-year-old resident of Maiduguri told the magazine that he had travelled to neighbouring Chad to sell grain because local customers could no longer afford it. Young people were leaving Borno for Chad, Cameroon and Ghana, he said, because opportunities at home had dried up.
The Economist said President Tinubu intends to campaign on his economic reforms, notably the removal of the petrol subsidy.
The publication also credited the reforms with helping to bring a measure of stability, pointing to lower inflation, higher government revenues and improving investment.
But it said the gains had been harder to discern in places such as Borno, where poor harvests, reductions in humanitarian aid and higher energy costs have intensified hardship.
Annual inflation was about 15% in August, while food inflation was closer to 20%, according to the report.
President Tinubu won 54% of votes cast in Borno in the 2023 presidential election, but the magazine, citing polling by SBM Intelligence, said he now trails both Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in popularity in the State.
Some Maiduguri residents told the publication they were prepared to register their frustration at the ballot box.
Still, popular discontent may not be enough to unseat an incumbent, the magazine argued.
“Incumbents, with access to the ruling-party machinery and plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent Nigerian elections,” it said.
The opposition’s failure to unite behind a single candidate could also prove decisive,” the magazine added.
NewsQuest reports that Obi and Atiku have not formed a joint ticket, leaving the anti-APC vote vulnerable to division across regions and political blocs.
“Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote,” Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks told the magazine.
The report said some voters in Maiduguri were unable to identify candidates other than Tinubu, highlighting the ruling party’s organisational reach and the limited visibility of challengers in some areas.
President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima, a former Borno Governor, are Muslims, as are most voters in northern Nigeria. The magazine suggested that shared religious identity, alongside the APC’s political infrastructure, could help the governing party retain support even in areas where economic frustration and insecurity are acute.
The central question for 2027, the publication suggested, is whether anger over living standards and security can be translated into a unified electoral challenge.
For now, it said, President Tinubu’s weaknesses may be outweighed by the opposition’s divisions and the structural advantages enjoyed by the party in power.
