Segun Sowunmi, a senior figure in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has said that President Bola Tinubu could capture roughly 22 states in the 2027 presidential election—an outcome he said would represent a marked improvement on the President’s performance in 2023.
Speaking on a national television Sowunmi described the contest as a two-way race between President Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is running under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) banner.
“The election is between Tinubu and Atiku; no doubt about it,” he said.
Sowunmi, despite his PDP affiliation, said recent political shifts suggest President Tinubu may expand his reach into regions that have historically proved difficult for the ruling party.
He singled out stronger showings in the south-east and south-south, and predicted gains across parts of the north.
“I believe that he is going to win significantly better numbers in the south-east,”Sowunmi said.
“Of course, he is going to get good numbers in the south-west. I even suspect that the south-south may bring in more good numbers than the south-east… The President is going to do very well in the north-central, and he will do significantly better than he did the last time in the north-west.”
He added that the gains might be modest in some places—“it may not be big wins —but said hard work by the incumbent could translate into control of about 22 States.
Sowunmi flagged the north-west as a region to watch, noting that influence there often hinges on alliances among powerful local actors and the flow of campaign resources.
“For the north-west, you have to look at where the big players are, the big boys that control the election and the big money,” he said, citing Kano as an example and pointing to recent political realignments in the State.
The projection, Sowunmi said, rests on current alignments among Governors and other influential figures gearing up for the next cycle.
He cautioned, however, that national political debate should not be limited to 2027.
Looking further ahead, he said attention should shift to a new generation of leaders to break what he called a cycle of recycled figures.
“As a person, as far as the presidential election in Nigeria is concerned, I have started looking at 2031,” he said.
“Who are the people that we should begin to look out for so that we can get out of these recycled elements,” he wondered.
