President Bola Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s latest assessment of Nigeria’s economy, saying it showed that reforms introduced by his government since 2023 were strengthening public finances and putting the country on a path to sustained growth.
The Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, found that the poverty rate had stabilised for the first time since 2019.
It expects poverty to decline gradually as economic growth outpaces population growth.
According to a statement by the President’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy Bayo Onanuga, Nigeria’s economy expanded 4.2% in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9% a year earlier, despite disruption from conflict in the Middle East, the report said.
The World Bank projects growth to average at least 4.4% from 2026 through 2028.
Inflation fell to 15.2% in December 2025 from 27.6% in January of that year. Higher global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have since slowed the decline, but the bank expects inflation to ease to about 12% by 2028.
The statement said the country’s external position also improved.
The current-account surplus reached $12 billion, or 7% of gross domestic product, in the first half of 2026, up from $8.6 billion a year earlier.
Gross external reserves rose to $53.8 billion at the end of August, from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025.
The report attributed a sharp increase in government revenue to reforms implemented since 2023, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign-exchange market. Federation revenue rose 69% in real terms from 2023 to 2025, with state governments the largest beneficiaries.
States increased capital spending by 151% in real terms over the same period, directing much of the additional money to roads and other transport, agriculture, energy and housing.
Twenty-nine of 33 states shifted spending toward economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person rose in all but one state.
Internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, the report said.
Twenty-one states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025.
The nation’s overall public debt is expected to decline to 38.1% of GDP in 2026 from 40% in 2025.
“These findings confirm that the difficult but necessary decisions to remove the petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market and strengthen fiscal discipline have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for every tier of government to invest in its people,” Tinubu said.
He said the gains had not yet translated fully into better living standards, citing lower food prices and decent jobs for young people as priorities.
His administration, he said, would expand targeted cash transfers – which have reached more than 10 million households – accelerate the deployment of compressed natural gas, raise agricultural productivity and improve access to affordable health care and quality education.
President Tinubu urged state governments to use their increased revenue prudently and prioritise projects that improve living standards, health and education.
He also praised the economic management team, state governors and other stakeholders for supporting the reforms.
“Our administration will stay the course of reform and redouble its focus on inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda,” he said.
