The Federal Government on Wednesday outlined a three‑year “Reform Scorecard,” defending President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms and setting out how the government deployed savings from fuel‑subsidy removal and other key policy shifts.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele who briefed journalists in Abuja said although the reforms imposed significant costs on households and businesses, they significantly prevented a deeper fiscal and external crisis.
“We invited you here today not to declare a victory, but to give an account,” Oyedele said, comparing actual outcomes through mid‑2026 with a counterfactual that assumes pre‑2023 policies had continued.
The bold reforms, the Minister said, shows both what the reforms produced — and what they averted.
Minister Oyedele disclosed that the reforms generated ₦15.8 trillion in subsidy savings between June 2023 and December 2025, out of which ₦5.4 trillion accrued to the Federal Government and ₦10.4 trillion to States and Local Governments Councils.
He said the Federal Government recorded about ₦3.1 trillion in extra independent revenue and took on an incremental ₦11.9 trillion in borrowing. According to him, those incremental federal resources totalled roughly ₦20.4 trillion.
“Between June 2023 and December 2025, subsidy savings mobilised ₦15.8 trillion in resources for the Federation. Of this, ₦5.4 trillion accrued to the Federal Government, while ₦10.4 trillion was shared to states and local governments.
“In addition, the Federal Government earned incremental independent revenue of ₦3.1 trillion – principally remittances from government-owned entities while ₦11.9 trillion came from incremental borrowing, a figure that would have been far higher, and economically destabilising, without the fiscal space the reforms created”, Oyedele noted.
Minister Oyedele also said those resources helped fund higher spending but did not cover all outlays.
He explained that incremental federal expenditures over the period reached ₦30.64 trillion, driven mainly by wage adjustments (₦9.39 trillion), interest payments on external debt spurred by exchange‑rate depreciation (₦9.37 trillion), and strategic infrastructure investment (₦6.5 trillion).
“That the largest single expenditure—wage adjustments—outstripped savings from subsidy removal shows the reform was not introduced for revenue purposes,” Oyedele said, adding that the aim was to curb corruption in an “artificially managed” fuel‑subsidy and foreign‑exchange system.
The Finance Minister noted that scorecard adopted a method which uses 25 indicators across five categories — fiscal sustainability, external stability, investment climate, social impact, and growth and productivity — and compares May‑2023 baselines, mid‑2026 outcomes and a “no‑reform” 2026 projection.
Minister Oyedele argued the reforms averted acute fiscal stress, noting that 27 States that could not reliably pay wages in May 2023 now can, while the no‑reform path would likely have left at least 30 States insolvent.
He highlighted the narrowing of the premium between the official and parallel foreign‑exchange rates — from above 60% to under 5% — a gap, which he warned could have swelled past 150% without policy change.
Acknowledging some of the costs and pains of the reforms to livelihood, Minister Oyedele disclosed that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) policy rate rose from 18.5% to 26.5% “as the price of stabilisation”.
He also acknowledged that petrol pump prices climbed from about ₦185 per litre before the reforms to between ₦1,100 and ₦1,400 — ‘a major, felt cost’, while food inflation eased from 24.82% to 17.52% by June 2026.
The Minister said these changes remained ‘unfinished business’ for the government.
“Poverty and household‑welfare recovery is still classified in our own scorecard as unfinished business, not a victory lap,” he said, promising deeper cash transfers, greater agricultural interventions and closer work with the States to ensure benefits reach communities.
Oyedele noted that broader macroeconomic gains: headline inflation was 15.91% in June 2026 (down from 22.41% in May 2023), gross foreign reserves rose to $52.5 billion from roughly $35 billion, and net reserves increased to about $34.8 billion from near $3 billion.
The Minister announced that real GDP growth strengthened to 3.89% from a 2.31% baseline, and stock‑market capitalisation climbed to roughly ₦150 trillion from about ₦31 trillion, attracting international endorsements: S&P Global upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating to ‘B’ in May — the first upgrade in 14 years — and the country exited the FATF grey list and the EU’s anti‑money‑laundering deficiency list, steps he cited as restoring market access and credibility.
Minister Oyedele credited the fiscal space created by reforms with enabling several social measures: the national minimum wage more than doubled to ₦70,000 from ₦30,000; pension arrears were addressed; cash transfers were expanded; a student‑lending scheme (NELFUND) was launched and has helped more than 1.5 million students.
According to him, mortgage and agricultural support programmes were rolled out.
He described the scorecard as a mid‑course assessment and urged public engagement.
